Note: On these pages you will find the Legal Disclaimer and the Statement according to sec. 85 of the German Securities Trading Act and MAR (Market Abuse Regulation (EU) 596/2014) and MiFID II (Directive 2014/65/EU) for all investment recommendations published by the Warburg Research GmbH, a fully owned subsidiary of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA, on all the companies currently on their coverage. You should be aware of the fact that all information on this and the following pages is regularly being updated, while any study and/or recommendation you might have before you has been completed on the date noted therein.

These pages were last updated on 20 Dec 2024.

Research reports ("Investment Recommendations") prepared by the Warburg Research GmbH contain selected information and do not purport to be complete. The reports base on publicly available information and data ("Information") believed to be accurate and complete. Warburg Research GmbH neither do examine the Information to be accurate and complete, nor guarantee its accuracy and completeness. Possible errors or incompleteness of the Information do not constitute grounds for liability, neither with regard to indirect nor to direct or consequential damages. In particular, neither M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA nor the Warburg Research GmbH are liable for the statements, plans or other details contained in the Information concerning the examined companies, their associated companies, strategies, economic situations, market and competitive situations, regulatory environment, etc. Although due care has been taken in compiling the Investment Recommendation, it cannot be excluded that they are incomplete or contain errors. M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH, their shareholders and employees are not liable for the accuracy and completeness of the statements, estimations and the conclusions derived from the information contained in these investment recommendations. Provided any Investment Recommendation is being transmitted in connection with an existing contractual relationship, i.e. financial advisory or similar services, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH shall be restricted to gross negligence and willful misconduct. Only in case of failure in essential tasks, M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are liable for normal negligence. In any case, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH is limited to typical, expectable damages and the liability for any indirect damages is excluded. Our Investment Recommendations do not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer for the purchase or sale of any security. Partners, directors or employees of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA or Warburg Research GmbH may serve on the board of directors of companies mentioned in a report. Opinions expressed in a report are subject to change without notice. All rights reserved.

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The valuation underlying the Investment Recommendation for the company analysed here is based on generally accepted and widely used methods of fundamental analysis, such as e.g. DCF Model, Free Cash Flow Potential, Peer Group Comparison or Sum of the Parts Model. The result of this fundamental valuation is modified to take into consideration the analyst's assessment as regards the expected development of investor sentiment and its impact on the share price.

Independent of the applied valuation methods, there is the risk that the price target will not be met, for instance because of unforeseen changes in demand for the company's products, changes in management, technology, economic development, interest rate development, operating and/or material costs, competitive pressure, supervisory law, exchange rate, tax rate etc. For investments in foreign markets and instruments there are further risks, generally based on exchange rate changes or changes in political and social conditions.

This commentary reflects the opinion of the relevant author at the point in time of its compilation. A change in the fundamental factors underlying the valuation can mean that the valuation is subsequently no longer accurate. Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this commentary follows is not determined in advance.

Additional internal and organisational arrangements have been implemented to prevent or to deal with conflicts of interest. Among these are the spatial separation of Warburg Research GmbH from M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and the creation of areas of confidentiality. This prevents the exchange of information, which could form the basis of conflicts of interest for Warburg Research in terms of the analysed issuers or their financial instruments.

The analysts of Warburg Research GmbH do not receive a gratuity - directly or indirectly - from the investment banking activities of M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA or of any company within the Warburg-Group.

All prices of financial instruments given in this Investment Recommendation are the closing prices on the last stock-market trading day before the publication date stated, unless another point in time is explicitly stated.

M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are subject to the supervision of the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, BaFin. M.M.Warburg & CO (AG & Co.) KGaA is additionally subject to the supervision of the European Central Bank (ECB).

The fair value / price target of a share is primarily calculated using discounted cash flow methods. This may be supplemented by other valuation methods such as a peer-group comparison or a sum-of-the-parts-model. Where appropriate (e.g. banks, real estate companies), other methods such as regression model might be used as primary valuation model.

DCF: The DCF model uses future free cash flow projections and discounts them to arrive at their present value. Usually, the weigthed average cost of capital are used as discount rate to reflect the time value of money, risks of the cash flows as well as the corporates's financing structure. A company's enterprise value is derived by using the DCF analysis. The equity value results from the subtraction (addition) of the net debt (net cash) position.

FCF value: Warburg Research's valuation tool "FCF Value Potential" reflects the ability of the company to generate sustainable free cash flows. It is based on the "FCF potential" - a FCF "ex growth" figure. A value indication is derived via the perpetuity of a given year's "FCF potential" with consideration of the weighted costs of capital. The fluctuating value indications over time add a timing element to the DCF model (our preferred valuation tool).

Peer Group: The peer group comparison is a relative valuation approach and may be used to derive a company's value. The peer group usually consists of other sufficiently comparable listed companies, transaction values of unlisted companies might also play a role. A peer group comparison might be based on sales, earnings (e.g. EBITDA, EBIT, EPS) or other (e.g. free cash flow, book-value, customers) measures.

Sum-of-the-parts: A sum-of-the-parts valuation yields the company's enterprise value by summing of the value of individual assets. Here different valuation models are being used, where appropriate. The equity value is derived by subtraction of the net debt position.

The fair value / price target of a share is primarily calculated using our regression model (PTB/ROE). This model may be supplemented by other valuation methods such as a peer-group comparison or a sum-of-the-parts-model.

Regression model: In order to calculate the Fair value of a bank we estimate banks book value and its profitability on a ROE basis. The calculated Price-to-book/ROE ratio is compared in a regression model with existing Peers to identify a fair value.

The Warburg Risk Score consists of two components, balance sheet quality and market liquidity and extends the fundamental company analysis by including qualitative risk components. We are not applying a strategy, making any exclusion (top-down approach) or deriving investment recommendations from score data but include those in the bottom-up company analysis.

Methodology: For each of the two components of the Warburg Risk Score (balance sheet and liquidity), we calculate a single score based on a defined matrix on a scale of 0 (min) to 5 (max). The Warburg Risk Score is derived as the equally-weighted average of the two single scores and therefore also ranges between 0 (min) and 5 (max). For the calculation of the single scores the following data are used:

1. Balance sheet quality: The balance sheet quality is calculated on the basis of net debt and net debt / EBITDA from the last reported year and the first year estimated. For the sectors financials, real estate and renewables, we apply an adjusted scoring matrix to account for sector-specific characteristics.
2. Liquidity-score: The liquidity score is based on the addressable average trading volume (in EUR) of the last 30 days on the company's domestic stock market.